The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 25, 2023. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians. cents, after touching its weakest since March 28 at 1.3694. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4 lower at 1.3684 to the greenback, or 73.08 U.S. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed. With recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing, and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold the policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability. Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be higher in the near term before easing again. After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Bank’s projection. Recent CPI data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad-based. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.
The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate. The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing. In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending. With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished. Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China. Inflation in advanced economies has continued to come down, but with measures of core inflation still elevated, major central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The last 14 days currency values.The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%.
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